After primaries coming fast and furious in the early stages of the presidential campaigns, we have had a long wait for another. At last Pennsylvania is on Tuesday, April 22. There is little point in covering the Repuglicans, because their contest is over, but I shall provide a brief summary at the end. For Democrats there are 158 delegates at stake, making this one of the richest prizes in the nation. The delegates are divided proportionally, according to votes in each congressional district.
The Democrats
The Polls
| Clinton | Obama | |
| LA Times | 46% | 41% |
| Philadelphia Daily News | 46% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac University | 50% | 44% |
| Rasmussen | 47% | 44% |
| ARG* | 57% | 37% |
| Newsweek | 47% | 44% |
| Downs | 45% | 50% |
| Zogby | 47% | 42% |
| Gallup | 46% | 45% |
| Average | 48% | 43% |
*American Research Group is notoriously unreliable.
The Delegates
| Pledged | Super | Total | Pledged | Super | Total | |
| Clinton | 1250 | 248 | 1498 | 46.9% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Obama | 1418 | 226 | 1644 | 53.1% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Total | 2668 | 474 | 3142 |
Since I last reported these Clinton has gained 13 delegates and Obama 22.
Analysis
If the polls accurately reflect the delegate split, Clinton should win the state and pick up 83 delegates to Obama’s 75, a net gain of 8 delegates cutting Obama’s lead to 138 delegates. Because polls generally lag several days behind, and Obama has been narrowing the gap, I don’t see Clinton pulling out a win of the devastating proportions she would need to increase her chances of winning the nomination. While the fat lady has not yet sung, she is clearing her throat.
Looking Forward
The next primaries are in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.
The Repuglicans
Wrong on Taxes!
Wrong on Social Security!!
Wrong on Health Care!!!
Wrong on the Economy!!!!
Wrong on Iraq!!!!!
Wrong on Iran!!!!!!
Wrong for America!!!!!!!
All articles cross-posted from Politics Plus
