Primary Report: 5/4

The saga continued yesterday with a tight race in Guam:

4guam Democrat Barack Obama beat rival Hillary Clinton by just seven votes in Guam’s nominating contest after record numbers of residents voted in the tiny U.S. territory’s primary, officials said on Sunday.

Results after more than 12 hours of manual counting showed Obama took 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton. In the last Democratic primary in 2004 only 1,500 people took part.

“Clearly, both of them are quite popular and we should celebrate that,” Josh Tenorio, Obama’s campaign manager on the territory told Reuters. “It’s a good day for Guam.”

With only four votes at the Democratic convention at stake, the contest on Guam, a Pacific island more than 20 hours by plane from Washington, will barely register in the protracted duel for the party’s presidential ticket…

Inserted from <IHT>

That should split those delegates evenly.

The real action comes on Tuesday, May 6, with important primaries in Indiana, with 84 delegates at stake, and North Carolina, with 134 delegates at stake.  At present, Clinton has a comfortable lead in Indiana and Obama, a formidable lead in North Carolina.  Both states award delegated proportionally by district.  I chose polls for both states that are a week or less old.

Indiana Clinton Obama
Zogby 42% 42%
Rasmussen 46% 41%
Downs 52% 45%
Public Policy 50% 42%
TeleResearch 48% 38%
Average 48% 42%
North Carolina Clinton Obama
Zogby 34% 50%
Rasmussen 40% 49%
Insider Advantage 44% 49%
NBC 17 44% 51%
WRAL 42% 49%
ARG 42% 52%
Public Policy 39% 51%
SurveyUSA 44% 49%
Average 41% 50%

The current delegate count is:

Pledged Super Total Pledged Super Total
Clinton 1334 265 1599 47.2% 52.2% 47.9%
Obama 1493 243 1736 52.8% 47.8% 52.1%
Total 2827 508 3335

4clinton-obama Since I last reported, Clinton had increased her total by 43 delegates, and Obama, by by 42, giving Clinton a net gain of one delegate.

If the polls are accurate, Clinton should gain 45 delegates to Obama’s 39 in Indiana, while Obama should gain 74 delegates to Clinton’s 60 in North Carolina.  That would give Obama 113 delegates to Clinton’s 105, an net gain of 8 delegates for Obama, increasing his lead to 145 delegates.  While polls are not always accurate predictors, I don’t see any major surprised coming in either contest.

With only nine primaries left after this one, all fairly closely contested, and none with more than 65 delegates, I do not see how Clinton can catch Obama before the convention in delegates, popular vote, or states won, before the convention, so the only way that Clinton can win the nomination is for enough of the remaining uncommitted super delegates to overrule the voters.  I am not stating a preference for either candidate, but I stand my statement in January that voters, not party insiders, should determine the nominee


2 Responses to “Primary Report: 5/4”

  1. Winslie Gomez Says:

    If only politics were as simple as “voters decide”. I appreciate the optimism and genuinely wish it were true.

    Thanks for the stats, they give a useful insight, even for us in the UK.
    My link, if relevant:

  2. politicsplus2 Says:

    Welcome, Winslie. While I admit the notion of one person, one vote is idealistic, I believe that the supporting such ideals is preferable to supporting less desirable realities. You’re welcome. 🙂

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