Primary Report: Indiana and North Carolina

The Democrats

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The Primaries

Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary 51% – 49% by 22,400 votes. Barack Obama won the north Carolina Primary 56% – 42% by 232,775 votes. This has to be considered a major win for Obama, because the margin of victory in Indiana was less than anticipated for Clinton, while in North Carolina, it was greater than anticipated for Obama.

The Delegates

Pledged Super Total Pledged Super Total
Clinton 1415 266 1681 47.2% 51.4% 47.8%
Obama 1584 252 1836 52.8% 48.6% 52.2%
Total 2999 518 3517

Since I last reported, Clinton has added 82 delegates, and Obama 100, giving Obama a net lead of 179 pledged and 155 total delegates. With only 217 pledged delegates left to be elected, Clinton will need 193 or 88.9% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama in Pledged delegates. That will not happen. I may have to adjust these figures, but the differences will be small.

The Demographics

Indiana

Indiana Clinton Obama
Gender
Male 51% 49%
Female 49% 51%
Education
No HS
HS Grad 53% 47%
Some College 54% 46%
College Grad 43% 57%
Postgrad 43% 57%
Income
Under $15,000 41% 59%
$15-30,000 55% 45%
$30-50,000 50% 50%
$50-75,000 51% 49%
$75-100,000 48% 52%
$100-150,000 60% 40%
Party ID
Democrat 51% 49%
Repuglican 53% 47%
Independent 46% 54%
Race
White 60% 40%
Black 10% 90%
Age
18-24 36% 64%
25-59 39% 61%
30-39 44% 56%
40-49 50% 50%
50-64 52% 48%
65+ 69% 31%
Religion
Protestant 50% 50%
Catholic 59% 41%
Jewish
Other 39% 61%
None 42% 58%

North Carolina

North Carolina Clinton Obama
Gender
Male 39% 58%
Female 43% 55%
Education
No HS 37% 60%
HS Grad 40% 57%
Some College 44% 54%
College Grad 44% 55%
Postgrad 41% 59%
Income
Under $15,000 31% 66%
$15-30,000 35% 62%
$30-50,000 41% 56%
$50-75,000 47% 52%
$75-100,000 46% 53%
$100-150,000 42% 55%
Party ID
Democrat 39% 60%
Repuglican 61% 32%
Independent 50% 45%
Race
White 61% 37%
Black 7% 91%
Age
18-24 30% 69%
25-59 19% 80%
30-39 34% 62%
40-49 36% 62%
50-64 46% 52%
65+ 57% 41%
Religion
Protestant 45% 53%
Catholic 51% 48%
Jewish
Other 27% 71%
None 29% 69%

Looking Forward

The only way Clinton can win the nomination is for the super delegates to overrule the voters. Next Tuesday is the West Virginia primary. Clinton holds a commanding 56% – 27% lead according to Rasmussen, but the state has only 39 pledged delegates at stake.

The Repuglicans

GOPKoolAid

All articles cross-posted from Politics Plus

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